The Chiapas Supplement is published by the Institute for Agriculture
and Trade Police as a special edition of the NAFTA & INTER-
AMERICAN TRADE MONITOR.  The Chiapas Supplement does not have
a regular publication schedule, but will appear on Friday, February
17 and Friday, February 24.  Additional issues may follow.

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Headlines:
- Army Moves on Chiapas
- Zedillo's Retreat
- Is There Oil in Those Hills?
- Chase Manhattan and Chiapas
- Human Rights
- PRI's Defeat
- Who Is Subcommandante Marcos?
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Army Moves on Chiapas

President Zedillo sent the army into Chiapas in force on February 9,
under orders to pursue and capture Zapatista leaders.  According to
the president of the center-left PRD, this action amounted to a
unilateral breaking of the existing truce.  Zapatista leader
Subcommander Marcos warned that "surrender is not in our plans."

Zedillo cited arms caches allegedly belonging to the Zapatistas and
unspecified plans for violence by the Zapatistas as justification for
sending in the troops.  The EZLN responded that it had never
abandoned its interest in dialogue and negotiation, and accused
Zedillo of negotiating only until the army could be put in a favorable
position to attack the EZLN.  On February 6, the National Mediation
Commission (CONAI) had affirmed that "The negotiation process to
find a POLITICAL SOLUTION has not come to a halt. This process
continues despite the inherent complex difficulties. The actual
dialogue stage has not been reached because all possible efforts to
bring about a STABLE TRUCE are first being made in order to make
the dialogue process successful and to guarantee the absence of any
military pressure on behalf of the armies involved. "  Even after the
military moved into Chiapas, CONAI continued to call on both parties
to stop fighting and return to the negotiation process.

As the army marched in, Zapatista fighters withdrew.  About thirty
people were arrested, though some have denied any links to the
EZLN.  Several thousand people marched in Mexico City in a show of
support for the Zapatistas.

The army acknowledged that one officer had been killed, but denied
other casualties.  According to official sources, no fighting occurred.
The wife of a military officer said that she saw 20 bodies brought to
the military base in Comitan on February 13, though she did not
know whether they were military, civilian, or EZLN casualties.

According to a February 14 communique from the Zapatistas, there
was fighting.  "Yesterday around noon, 14 helicopters bombed the
area around Morelia and Gamucha, as well as shot artillery fire in the
area under Zapatista control, thousands of federal soldiers have
penetrated into the interior of the jungle, via Monte Libano, Agua
Azul, Santa Lucia, La Gamucha Champes, San Agustin, Guadalupe
Tepeyac and others.  They are surrounding us with death and
ugliness. ... [T]he government of Ernesto Zedillo is killing us, it is
killing children, it is attacking women and raping them."

La Jornada reported that at least a dozen bodies had been brought to
a hospital after fighting in or near Guadalupe Tepeyac.  The Red Cross
reported that thousands of refugees from the fighting were in critical
and difficult straits.  Amnesty International also confirmed reports of
aerial strafing against civilian populations and reported that it had
received allegations of the use of torture to force confessions of
alleged members of the EZLN.

Tim Golden, "Mexican President Orders a Crackdown on Rebels," NEW
YORK TIMES, 2/10/95; Anita Snow, "Questions Surround Mexico
Arrests as Rebel Fighters Move Into Jungle," ASSOCIATED PRESS,
2/12/95; LA JORNADA, 2/14/95; Trina Kleist, "Army Moves Into
Rebel Area; Mexican Officer Shot to Death," ASSOCIATED PRESS,
2/11/95; EZLN COMMUNIQUES, 2/11,14/95; STATEMENT BY
AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL REGARDING CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN
CHIAPAS, MEXICO, 2/14/95; "Press Release," NATIONAL MEDIATION
COMMISSION, 2/6,10/95; "Bombardeos," LA JORNADA, 2/13/95;
Oscar Camacho Guzman, "(Eng. translation) Deaths, Arrests, and
Court," LA JORNADA, 2/15/95.

Zedillo's Retreat

On February 14, President Zedillo announced that he had ordered the
army and the Federal Prosecutor's Office (PGR) to stop pursuing the
Zapatistas.  Zedillo also called on the Zapatistas to move toward peace,
and reportedly ordered the army to limit itself to patrolling and to
avoid violence.  He said he will ask Congress to approve an amnesty
for rebels who lay down their arms.

Zapatista leaders replied that they have always been ready to
negotiate, but noted that "The government should understand that it
is not possible to dialogue with someone who is pursuing us."  The
EZLN asked that government troops be withdrawn from Chiapas
villages, detainees be released, and arrest warrants for EZLN leaders
be withdrawn in order to facilitate negotiation.

The PRI governor of Chiapas, Eduardo Robledo, resigned on February
14, bitterly denouoncing the Zapatistas as utopian, regressive, and
undemocratic.  Robledo called for PRD shadow governor Amado
Avendao and Bishop Samuel Ruiz to resign as well.  Bishop Ruiz said
he has no intention of stepping down.  Avendao said he will follow
the will of the people.  Robledo's election was considered fraudulent
by the Zapatistas, who considered his inauguration on December 8 a
violation of the 11-month cease-fire and had consistently called for
him to step down.

Robledo was replaced by Julio Cesar Ruiz Ferro, also of PRI.  Ruiz
Ferro, an economist, has been closely associated with Robledo, and
has a long history of government employment, as well as terms on
the administrative councils of several banks.

MEXICO UPDATE, 2/15/95; Anthony DePalma, "Mexican President
Orders Army to Halt Offensive Against Rebels," NEW YORK TIMES,
2/15/95; Jos Gil Olmos, "EZLN Dispuesto al Dialogo," LA JORNADA,
2/16/95; Alonso Urrutia, "Otorgo Licencia a Robledo," LA JORNADA,
2/15/95.

Is There Oil in Those Hills?

According to government reports, oil fields located in Zapatista-
controlled areas of Chiapas represent major deposits of high quality
crude.  The existence of the Chiapas fields was revealed in a 1992
U.S. government report, which quoted interviews with Mexican
government officials.

Exploratory wells were drilled near Ocosingo and Altamirano, in the
Tzeltal region at the canyon entrance to the Lacandon headquarters
of the Zapatistas, and in the highlands of Chiapas near Tzeltal, Chol,
and Tzotzil towns.  All existing wells in the area were capped as soon
as drilling was completed.  Pemex stopped exploration in Chiapas
when it began contracting with private Mexican and foreign
companies for exploration.  Average output of the wells is believed to
be below that of offshore Mexican wells but far above U.S. and
Canadian averages.  An anonymous Pemex engineer characterized
the area as "a strategic oil reserve of the United States."

The Zapatistas claim that the government has deliberately traded
away the resources belonging to the people of Mexico and Chiapas in
particular;  "The delivery of the wealth of the national subsoil,
especially the petroleum, is what is at the root of the current
governmental decision [to invade Chiapas].  In the top level
government circles of Mexico and the United States, the existence of
rich, high quality oil fields in the lands of Chiapas is common
knowledge.  The EZLN is a disturbance to the treasonous plans of the
supreme government.  This is the price of the loan: it will have to be
paid with Mexican blood, and with indigenous blood especially, in
order to pay off the debt."

Miguel Angel Snchez, "Beneath the Rain Forest," EL FINANCIERO,
1/30-2/5/95; EZLN COMMUNIQUE, 2/11/95.

Chase Manhattan and Chiapas

A January 13 newsletter produced by Chase Manhattan Bank's
Emerging Markets Group said that President Zedillo's government
"will need to eliminate the Zapatistas to demonstrate their effective
control of national territory and of security policy."  The newsletter
went on to advise that "the Zedillo administration will need to
consider carefully whether or not to allow opposition victories if
fairly won at the ballot box" in Jalisco and other state elections in
1995.  Chase Manhattan officials said the newsletter did not reflect
the opinion of the bank.

The four-page newsletter was written by Riordan Roett, director of
Latin American Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced
International Studies, on leave of absence from the school to serve as
an adviser to Chase Manhattan.  Roett has known and worked with
Mexican President Zedillo for a decade.  At a January 11 seminar for
the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Roett argued that
"resolving" the Chiapas situation quickly was "essential, from the
investor point-of-view."  Attendees at the seminar included Elliott
Abrams, who was the State Department official in charge of Latin
American affairs under former U.S. Preisdent Reagan.

In a February 9 letter to newspapers, Subcommander Marcos
accused President Zedillo of moving on the indigenous people of
Chiapas and the EZLN in order to comply with the conditions of the
$50 billion peso bailout package.  "The price of the Zapatista heads is
the only one that maintains a high value in the ups and downs of
financial speculation. Mr. Zedillo is starting to pay the loan."

Ken Silverstein and Alexander Cockburn, "Major U.S. Bank Urges
Zapatista Wipe-Out: 'A Litmus Test for Mexico's Stability,'"
COUNTERPUNCH, 2/1/95; Riordan Roett, "Mexico-Political Update,"
CHASE MANHATTAN'S EMERGING MARKETS GROUP MEMO, 1/13/95;
"U.S. Bank Disavows Newsletter on Mexico," UPI, 2/13/95.

Human Rights

While claiming that it has nothing to hide, the Mexican army
restricted access to Chiapas as thousands of troops and hundreds of
helicopters, tanks, and armored vehicles poured into the state in
February.  Only a few, carefully supervised reporters were allowed
to visit the now-empty, former rebel command center of Guadalupe
Tepeyac.

Red Cross personnel who had run the hospital in Guadalupe Tepeyac
since shortly after the beginning of the Zapatista rebellion left after
the army took over the town.  All townspeople also left.  Indian
leaders said the army bombed the villages of Morelia and La
Garrucha on February 10, and also killed children and beat women.

Amnesty International protested the denial of access to conflicted
zones, reported allegations of torture and bombings of civilian
populations, and noted that previous human rights violations by the
military have gone unpunished.

An attorney for several arrested individuals charged that they were
illegally incarcerated in secret military prisons and illegally
interrogated by the military before being turned over to the
Procaduria General de la Republica (PGR).

An appendix to the Amnesty International statement reported that:

"On 10 February, a delegation of Deputies (Members of Congress)
belonging to the opposition Partido de la Revolucin Democrtica
(PRD), visited the first eight named above in prison.  They reported
that several told them that they had been tortured during police
interrogation to force confessions, and that most had visible signs of
their torture.  Mara Gloria Guevara Niebla (also known as Mara
Gloria Benavides) said that she had been beaten up, threatened with
her two-year-old son's torture or death, and forced to sign papers
she could not see.  Ricardo Hernndez Lpez said that he had been
beaten and that he saw the other detainees being beaten by the
police.  Lus Snchez Navarrete said that he had been beaten up and
nearly asphyxiated by having a canvas bag pulled over his head.
Alvaro Castillo Granados was reportedly beaten up and had visible
bruising on his face and wrists, and also said that he had had a bag
pulled over his head.  Hermelinda Garca Zapahua said that she had
been stripped and subjected to electric shocks all over her body, and
also beaten on the head and breasts.  She also said that she was
beaten after transfer to prison.  Rosa Hernndez Hernndez said that
she was wrapped in a wet sheet and then subjected to electric shocks
all over her body, and almost asphyxiated with a blanket."

Anthony DePalma, "Mexican Army Curbs Access to Rebel Zone but
Says There's Nothing to Hide," NEW YORK TIMES, 2/14/95;
STATEMENT BY AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL REGARDING CURRENT
DEVELOPMENTS IN CHIAPAS, MEXICO, 2/14/95; "Antes de Ir a la PGR
Detinidos Estuvieron en una Carcel Militar, Acusa la Defensa," LA
JORNADA, 1/12/95.

PRI's Defeat

The PRI, Mexico's governing party for decades, suffered a massive
electoral defeat on February 13, when the right-wing PAN candidate
for governor won a resounding victory in Jalisco.  PAN also won the
mayoralty in Guadalajara, Mexico's second-largest city, and most of
Jalisco's other big cities, as well as 17 of 20 directly-elected seats in
Jalisco's legislature.

This is only the third time since 1929 that PRI has conceded an
opposition victory in a state election.  PAN won its first victory
against PRI in Baja California in 1989 and its second in Chihuahua in
1992.  Former President Carlos Salinas forced PRI governors to resign
in Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi and Michoacan after allegations of
electoral fraud.

This year elections are scheduled in Yucatan, Guanajuato, Baja
California, and Yucatan, all PAN strongholds.  A January 17
agreement between the nation's four leading political parties, now
rescinded because of President Zedillo's actions against the Zapatistas,
called for major electoral, judicial, and political changes, and for new
elections in Chiapas and Tabasco.  After violent demonstrations by
PRI members in Tabasco, the government backed away from this
commitment.

Ironically, the clear defeat of PRI in Jalisco may help the PRI by
defusing allegations of corruption and fraud.  A strong vote against
PRI candidates was expected because of the financial crisis.

Tim Golden, "Governing Party in Mexico Suffers Big State Defeat,"
NEW YORK TIMES, 2/14/95; Leslie Crawford, "Zedillo Faces Defeat in
State Election," FINANCIAL TIMES, 2/14/95; Dianne Solis, "PRI Loses
a Mexico Governorship, But Clean Vote Could Help Image," WALL
STREET JOURNAL, 2/14/95; John Ross, "Hot and Nasty, Tabasco Sizzles
as PRD Tries to Regain Political Momentum;" Laurence Iliff,
"Judgment Day;" "The Days of Decision," EL FINANCIERO, 2/6-12/95.

Who Is Subcommandante Marcos?

The Mexican government claims that, with the assistance of U.S.
intelligence agencies, they have uncovered the identity of the ski-
masked Subcommandante Marcos, the leading spokesperson of the
EZLN for the past year.  He is, the LOS ANGELES TIMES reports, Rafael
Sebastian Guillen Vicente, "a round-faced, scraggly bearded son of a
well-to-do furniture store owner from the port town of Tampico in
the northern state of Tamaulipas."  Marcos objects.  The person the
government has identified is not good-looking.  "Find another more
handsome one," he requests, complaining that the women will stop
writing him letters if they think he is the less-handsome Guillen.

"Guillen enrolled in the department of philosophy and letters at the
Autonomous National University of Mexico in 1977 and graduated
with a sociology degree in 1980, his thesis titled "Philosophy and
Education: Practical Discourses and Practical Ideologies."  He earned a
graduate degree and became an associate professor at a campus in
Xochimilco in 1983, resigned after a year, and allegedly left for
Managua, Nicaragua. "

Whatever his name or background, the EZLN remains firmly
committed to Marcos, and he to the cause.  According to an EZLN
communique, "With respect to the calumny about the leadership of
the EZLN not being indigenous nor from Chiapas, the EZLN declares
that it has no higher command than the Indigenous Clandestine
Revolutionary Committee-General Command and that it is composed
of, in its totality, indigenous people of Chiapas.

With respect to the origins of subcomandante Marcos, as he has
stated since January 1st, 1994, he is not from Chiapas nor indigenous,
but he is Mexican and he obeys our political and organizational
direction and no one else.  The military questions are his direct
responsibility, and there is no higher military authority than his, and
in our structure, no one else has the military rank of
subcomandante."

"Zapatista Chief Led Privileged Life," LOS ANGELES TIMES, 2/12/95;
EZLN COMMUNIQUE, 2/11/95.

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Produced by the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, Mark
Ritchie, President. Edited by Mary C. Turck.